Arnott gives Nashville shootout win over Red Wings

Hockey Betting Lines

04/09/2009 - Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joel Ward scored the equalizer with 59.3 seconds left in regulation and Jason Arnott had the deciding goal in the shootout, as Nashville stayed in the playoff race with a key 4-3 win over Detroit.

With the win, the Predators pulled into a tie with Anaheim and St. Louis with 88 points, as all three teams are in position for the final two playoff spots. The Ducks are currently in the seventh position and the Blues are in eighth, but both were idle Thursday and have a game at hand over Nashville.

Nevertheless, the comeback win was a big one for Nashville, which won the season series against Detroit for the first time in franchise history. The Predators took four of six games from the Red Wings this season, including three in a row -- the last two at Detroit.

Arnott finished with a goal and assist for the Predators, who have won two of three, with both victories coming in a shootout. Scott Nichol also lit the lamp, while Pekka Rinne made 23 saves.

Nicklas Lidstrom, Niklas Kronwall and Johan Franzen had the goals for Detroit, which had won two in a row. The Red Wings got a point in the loss, but at 112 total are no longer in contention for the top seed in the West, as they trail San Jose by five with just two games to play. The Sharks host Phoenix later Thursday.

Chris Osgood stopped 22 shots in the loss.

Detroit held a 3-1 lead after Franzen sent a shot from the slot past Rinne by the left post just 2:12 into the third period.

But Nashville got back within a goal with 6:42 remaining, when Arnott got the rebound off his own shot and sent it over a sprawled Osgood.

The Predators' chances of winning took a hit when Arnott was called for holding with 4:05 remaining, but Kronwall was whistled for tripping with 2:52 to play. The teams played 4-on-4 until Arnott's penalty ran out, with the Red Wings getting a great scoring chance almost immediately after the faceoff. However, Rinne stuffed the shot and eventually Nashville went on the power play.

With a little over a minute to play, Rinne skated off, giving the Predators a 6-on-4. Nashville's attackers flooded the Detroit zone, and Ryan Jones took a shot from the right side. The puck fluttered into the slot, where Arnott took a whack at it. Ward followed with another swing to get it past Osgood with 59.3 ticks left to tie the contest.

Nashville got another power play with 43.2 left in overtime, but Detroit killed it off to send the contest to a shootout.

Detroit's Jiri Hudler was the fifth shooter and scored on a snap shot between Rinne's pads. However, in a do-or-die chance, Ville Koistinen scored top shelf on a backhander to send it to a fourth round.

Rinne stopped Dan Cleary's forehand chance before Arnott scored five hole to give Nashville the win.

Kronwall got Detroit on the board with a power play goal 11:50 into the first period. However, Nichol's shot from the right circle at 6:18 of the middle frame evened the score.

Lidstrom tipped in a shot on the power-play with 32.7 ticks left in the second to give the Red Wings the 2-1 edge.

Game Notes

Nashville closes out its regular season Friday at Minnesota...Detroit plays a home-and-home set with Chicago over the weekend to close the season...The Red Wings were 2-for-4 on the power play, while Nashville went 1-for-6 with the man advantage.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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