Chicago Bears 2007 Season Preview

Football Betting Lines

08/13/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It should go without saying that no one wants to play the role of runner-up. An obvious statement, but a more profound one in the NFL, where Super Bowl runners-up have historically enjoyed an ignoble fate.

Before the Seattle Seahawks made a return trip to the postseason in 2006, none of the previous five Super Bowl losers had reached the playoffs in the season that followed their big-stage disappointment.

What's more, not since the early 1970s has a team that lost the Super Bowl come back to win it the next year. The 1972 Miami Dolphins performed the feat, in an era that came long before the salary cap rendered staying near the top exponentially more difficult.

With that history in mind, you wouldn't expect Bears fans to be filled with optimism that the raising of the club's first Lombardi Trophy in more than two decades is imminent. Though on paper, Lovie Smith's club should again be in decent shape.

That hot-and-cold offensive corps has lost running back Thomas Jones, but the passing game figures to get a much-needed boost via the addition of pass- catching tight end Greg Olsen.

There has been more attrition on defense, with coordinator Ron Rivera's absence among the most significant, but the karma on that side of the ball is all of the positive variety as the season nears.

That's because the threatened holdout of linebacker Lance Briggs didn't even last a day, with Briggs signing a one-year deal to at least temporarily cancel that soap opera.

And the team's decision to release troubled defensive tackle Tank Johnson may have raised some eyebrows, but the subsequent trade for ex-Eagles starter Darwin Walker may in fact have netted Chicago a better player.

Also, the fact must be faced that the Bears are still far and away the best team in the NFC North, once again among the weakest divisions in football. A double-digit win total would seem a virtual certainty for this year's version of the Monsters of the Midway, and a January home game or two in the cold of the Windy City would again offer Smith and company an advantage over their conference brethren.

Inasmuch, the Bears' toughest opponent of 2007 could be history itself.

Below we take a capsule look at the 2007 edition of the Chicago Bears, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2006 RECORD: 13-3 (1st, NFC North)

LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2006, lost to Indianapolis, 29-17, in Super Bowl

COACH (RECORD): Lovie Smith (29-19 in three seasons with Bears, 29-19 overall)

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Ron Turner

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Bob Babich

OFFENSIVE STAR: Rex Grossman, QB (3193 passing yards, 23 TD, 20 INT)

DEFENSIVE STAR: Brian Urlacher, LB (141 tackles, 3 INT)

OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 15th rushing, 14th passing, t2nd scoring

DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 6th rushing, 11th passing, 3rd scoring

FIVE KEY GAMES: Dallas (9/23), at Detroit (9/30), at Green Bay (10/7), at Minnesota (12/17), New Orleans (12/30)

KEY ADDITIONS: RB Garrett Wolfe (3rd Round, Northern Illinois), FB Obafemi Ayanbadejo (from Cardinals), TE Greg Olsen (1st Round, Miami-Florida), DE Dan Bazuin (2nd Round, Central Michigan), DT Anthony Adams (from 49ers), DT Darwin Walker (from Bills/Eagles), LB Michael Okwo (3rd Round, Stanford), S Adam Archuleta (from Redskins)

KEY DEPARTURES: RB Thomas Jones (to Jets), WR Justin Gage (to Titans), DT Tank Johnson (released), DT Ian Scott (to Eagles), DT Alfonso Boone (to Chiefs), S Todd Johnson (to Rams), S Cameron Worrell (to Dolphins), S Chris Harris (to Panthers)

QB: It was a weird, wild first year as a starter for Grossman, who seemed to either look like a Pro Bowler or completely overmatched, with very little in between. Grossman's Super Bowl performance, in which he turned the ball over three times and led just one scoring drive longer than 14 yards, did little to establish his place among the NFL elite. Smith will stand by Grossman in the hopes that he will mature, but the head coach will be under pressure to make a change every time the former first-round pick experiences a meltdown. The depth chart behind Grossman will remain the same, with Brian Griese (220 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) awaiting a chance to relieve Grossman and Kyle Orton trying to remember the days when he was Chicago's starter.

RB: It is put up or shut up time for Cedric Benson (647 rushing yards, 6 TD), the 2005 first-round draft pick who finally gets a chance to start now that Thomas Jones is a Jet. Benson evokes comparisons to Chiefs running back Larry Johnson, both due to his hard-hitting style and enigmatic personality, and should be a 1,500-yard back if healthy. Spelling Benson will either be veteran special teams ace Adrian Peterson (41 rushing yards, 2 TD), who has performed well every time he has been called upon since entering the league in 2002, or third-round draft choice and local favorite Garrett Wolfe. At 5-foot-7, 177 pounds, Wolfe will have to prove to skeptics that he can withstand an NFL pounding. Jason McKie (25 receptions) all but solidified his status as the starting fullback when free agent pickup Obafemi Ayanbadejo (17 receptions with the Cardinals) was suspended four games for using a banned substance early in training camp.

WR/TE: Chicago had four impact wide receivers in 2006, all of whom - possession man Muhsin Muhammad (60 receptions, 5 TD), deep threat Bernard Berrian (51 receptions, 6 TD), and backups Rashied Davis (22 receptions, 2 TD) and Mark Bradley (14 receptions, 3 TD) - return. But it is the new face in the Bears receiving group that was grabbing the most headlines early in camp. Electrifying return man and reserve defensive back Devin Hester was injected into the receiving mix, a la Deion Sanders, and his presence alone should give opposing defensive coordinators headaches. Because of Hester's varied responsibilities, the team will probably keep one more receiver, and former Oregon State star and Saints draft choice Mike Hass figures to be that guy. Apart from Hester, the team's biggest pass-catching addition is first-round draft choice and tight end Greg Olsen. Olsen gives Grossman a significant receiving option over the middle of the field, and relegates holdovers Desmond Clark (45 receptions, 6 TD) and John Gilmore (6 receptions, 2 TD) to serving mainly as blockers.

OL: The Bears line was not among the most heralded in the league a year ago, but played extremely well in both the run- and pass-blocking phases of the game. The entire starting group of left tackle John Tait, left guard Ruben Brown, center Olin Kreutz, right guard Roberto Garza, and right tackle Fred Miller is back in the fold. Brown and Kreutz were both Pro Bowlers in 2006. Tackle John St. Clair and guard Terrence Metcalf are Chicago's top o-line backups, and a pair of draft picks - center/guard Josh Beekman and tackle Aaron Brant - were attempting to secure backup jobs during camp.

DL: The work of the Bears' interior defensive line will bear watching this season, as that group loses three players - Tank Johnson, Ian Scott, and Alfonso Boone - who were significant contributors last season. In addition, the club's top DT, Tommie Harris (28 tackles, 5 sacks), comes off a hamstring injury that prematurely ended his 2006 campaign. Smith and new defensive coordinator Bob Babich are counting on newcomers Darwin Walker (36 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT with Philadelphia) and Anthony Adams (21 tackles, 2 sacks with the 49ers) along with holdovers Israel Idonije (19 tackles) and Dusty Dvoracek to help keep the unit afloat. Chicago is in a more certain state at end, where '06 staples Adewale Ogunleye (43 tackles, 6.5 sacks), Alex Brown (46 tackles, 7 sacks, 2 INT), and Mark Anderson (28 tackles, 12 sacks) are still in the fold. A fourth player, second-round draft choice Dan Bazuin, will be attempting to crack the end rotation as well.

LB: One of the bigger stories of the late-spring, early-summer faded with a whimper, as Briggs (130 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) reported to training camp and took his rightful place on the weak side. Briggs and middle man Brian Urlacher will continue to form the heart of one of the league's top linebacking units, and the third starter - strong side backer Hunter Hillenmeyer (48 tackles) - is no slouch either. Smith and Babich will have some tough decisions in locating the primary backups at LB. Third-round draft choice Michael Okwo is virtually assured of making the club, as is special teams stalwart Brendon Ayanbadejo (25 tackles). That leaves holdovers Rod Wilson (21 tackles), Jamar Williams (2 tackles), Leon Joe (10 tackles), and Darrell McClover (8 tackles) fighting for at most two spots. Give the early edge to Wilson, who appeared in 13 games a year ago, and Williams, a fourth-round draft choice in 2006.

DB: Chicago still has one of the most envied groups of cornerbacks in the league, with playmakers Nathan Vasher (45 tackles, 3 INT), Charles Tillman (80 tackles, 5 INT), and Ricky Manning Jr. (53 tackles, 5 INT, 2 sacks) making up an elite group. Things are a bit sketchier at safety, however, where second- year free safety Danieal Manning (67 tackles, 2 INT) is the only sure thing. The starter on the strong side will either be Adam Archuleta (60 tackles, 1 sack with the Redskins), who has played his way out of both St. Louis and Washington in the past two seasons, or veteran Mike Brown (23 tackles), who has played in only 20 games since 2003 due to injury. Backups should include the multi-talented Hester (9 tackles), special teams contributor Brandon McGowan, and perhaps second-day 2007 draft picks Corey Graham, Trumaine McBride and Kevin Payne.

SPECIAL TEAMS: There is not a better return specialist in the league than Hester (12.8 punt return avg. 26.4 kickoff return avg.), who broke an NFL record with six returns for touchdowns (three punt return, two kickoff, one missed FG) during the 2006 regular season, then led off the Super Bowl with a dazzling TD for a score. Don't be surprised if most teams choose to kick away from the Pro Bowler. The Bears are also set in the kicking game, with the solid Robbie Gould (32-36 FG) and Brad Maynard (44.2 avg.) both returning along with steady long-snapper Patrick Mannelly.

PROGNOSIS: The Bears were a team with flaws when they won the NFC in 2006, and they're still a team with flaws. On the bright side for Chicago, there isn't another club in the conference that is without major question marks as 2007 begins, leaving the door open for a return to the Super Bowl for Lovie Smith's squad. If the Bears can show some better playmaking ability on offense, which the presence of Benson, Olsen, and Hester could inspire, it will put less pressure on a defense that saw its dominant grip loosen in the latter stages of '06. Regardless, this will still be a high-quality defense thanks in large part to Urlacher, Briggs, and the cornerbacks, and no one is going to be scoring points in bunches on Chicago. All told, there isn't a team to touch the Bears in the NFC North, and their easy road to the postseason will set them up for further success come January.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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