The 'wow' factor in horse racing

Horseracing Betting Lines

07/12/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This past Saturday had three stakes races that were the equal of any last-second result in the more popular sports in the world. The word 'wow' had to be shouted by anyone who watched the races as they happened.

The finishes of the Delaware Oaks, Man o'War and Hollywood Gold Cup should all have been shown on every sports news program in the nation. Each finish was decided by no more than half a length, with one somehow not resulting in a deadheat.

First on the afternoon was the $250,000 Delaware Oaks from beautiful Delaware Park. The 1 1/16-mile race featured leading three-year-old filly Blind Luck, the winner of the Kentucky Oaks in April.

Ridden by Joel Rosario, Blind Luck got away from the gate slowly on the sloppy track, leaving herself with a lot of ground to make up. Sent off as the 2-5 favorite in the seven-horse field, the filly gave the 'bridge jumpers' something to worry about.

At the top of the stretch there was no way the favorite was going to get up in time to win. She had made a four wide move around the final turn, but was still four lengths off the lead.

Havre de Grace had the lead inside the furlong pole, and looked like the winner. Somehow, Rosario got Blind Luck rolling ever closer to the lead and was able to catch Havre de Grace.

The naked eye couldn't separate the two fillies, so it appeared that either Havre de Grace held on for the win or there was going to be a deadheat. The photo revealed that Blind Luck got her nose to the wire first.

"It was close, but she got there," said winning rider Joel Rosario. "She broke slow and since the track was wet, so sometimes you have to take your time and let your horse settle. After I passed the 3/8th's pole, I asked her and she proved to be a nice filly and she beat a nice filly."

"You know the good ones just find a way to get there," said victorious trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. "I mean she has been beaten before, but she is a very good filly and she just finds a way to there. We are very grateful and very thankful. Joel is a very strong rider and he is one of the strongest finishers in the country. We are still looking at the Alabama (at Saratoga on August 21) for her next start."

A short time later at Belmont Park, another 2-5 favorite needed every inch of a race to get a win. Champion grass runner Gio Ponti came in still seeking his first win of 2010, and managed to record it in dramatic fashion.

The $600,000 Man o'War featured eight turf specialists and Gio Ponti was running last on the firm course. Jockey Ramon Dominguez had his mount four wide around the turn for home in the 1 3/-8-mile race. Gio Ponti, who is also the defending champion older handicap horse, put on a furious rally down the stretch to catch Mission Approved to post a neck victory.

"I was a little concerned about the way the race was going to unfold," said Dominguez. "I knew there wasn't a whole lot of speed, and that there were a lot of horses with similar running styles to mine. As the race unfolded, I was a little concerned about the slow pace, but I was very happy with the way he was traveling. Turning for home, I felt it was a matter of getting a little racing luck. When he split horses, at that point, I felt a little more confident, and that he would get there."

"The grass is green, and even greener now," winning trainer Christophe Clement exclaimed. "I'm delighted with Gio Ponti. Everyone made a big deal of him getting beaten (by stablemate Winchester in the Woodford Reserve Manhattan on June 5), but I never had a doubt that the horse was the leader of his division and I'm delighted with the way he ran.

"Now we can enjoy it a little bit, see how he comes out of it. His well-being is the main thing."

Gio Ponti is most likely to defend in the Arlington Million on August 21.

Completing the trifecta of fantastic finishes was the $500,000 Hollywood Gold Cup, where Rail Trip was going after a second straight win in the race. A victory would make him the top handicap horse in California.

Jockey Rafael Bejarano had the 2-5 favorite sitting third in the six-horse field behind pacesetter Compari. Rail Trip came wide around the final turn.

"I was traveling well and was in good position on the first turn," noted Bejarano. "After the first turn, (Cigar Man) just pushed me out. I was trying to follow the speed, but they were going so slow. I didn't want to rush him so I waited for the half-mile."

At the same time, 8-1 longshot Awesome Gem was racing fifth while saving ground on the rail. However, as the field entered the stretch the seven-year-old gelding did not look like a winner.

Rail Trip had the lead at the top of stretch, but jockey David Flores got Awesome Gem rolling on the rail.

Awesome Gem caught Rail Trip with less than 100 yards to run and registered a half-length victory.

"Everybody went at the half-mile," Flores said, "and I tried not to lose my position and wait for that pocket to come at the end. Mike Smith (Compari) was about ready to shut off the hole, but he looked like he ran out of horse so it was very nice of him to leave me that spot. When that hole opened up I couldn't look for any better spot than that. That was the most beautiful thing, when you have a horse that can accelerate like that at any time."

Winning trainer Craig Dollase somehow knew that his charge was capable of pulling the upset over Rail Trip.

"I was very confident because Awesome Gem is not a very good work horse," Dollase commented, "and his last two works he had really been on edge. The timing worked out great. We mapped this out. We stuck to the plan. His works over this track were too good to not take a shot."

Three great races, three excellent finishes to prove that the Sport of Kings can rarely be equaled for pure excitement.

Victoriasvegas Horseracing Betting News

<< This Week in Golf - July 12th through July 18th
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - BRITISH OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP, The Old Course at St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Scotland - The season's third major championship is on deck and it's being contested at the home of golf, The Old Course at St. Andrews

<< Canucks sign D O'Brien, three others
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Vancouver Canucks on Monday announced the signing of defenseman Shane O'Brien. O'Brien, 26, had two goals and six assists with a plus-15 rating in 65 games for the Canucks last season. He has

<< NL Notebook: Better late then never for Reds' Rhodes
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There may not be a more random All-Star on this year's National League squad than left-handed specialist Arthur Rhodes. Then again, there may not be a more deserving player either. Forget the moonball he served up to Ryan

<< AL Notebook: Cano finally starting to 'get it' with Yankees
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It wasn't long ago that there were some people inside the New York Yankees organization who wanted to deal Robinson Cano. Some felt he was too lazy in the field. Others didn't like his approach at the plate. His harshest c

<< ESPN's Berman honored with Pete Rozelle Award
Canton, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - ESPN host Chris Berman has been recognized as the 2010 recipient of the Pro Football Hall of Fame's Pete Rozelle Radio- Television Award. The award recognizes long-time exceptional contributions t

Montana's Wilson to play after murder acquittal >>
Missoula, MT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jimmy Wilson plans to rejoin the University of Montana football team after the NCAA granted him another year of athletic eligibility following his acquittal on murder charges. Wilson was tried in Southern Cali

Blackhawks to match San Jose's offer sheet for D Hjalmarsson >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Despite noted salary cap problems, the Chicago Blackhawks announced Monday that the club will match San Jose's offer sheet for restricted free agent defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson. The Sharks signed the 2

Canada well-represented at 2010 MLB All-Star Game >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays will send three of their starting nine to the 81st MLB All-Star Game, after hitting a major-league leading 136 home runs in the first half. Toronto's All-Star representatives of Verno

Cavs owner defends stance on LeBron >>
CLEVELAND (AP) -Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert says he ``strongly'' disagrees with Jesse Jackson's criticism of his recent comments about LeBron James.Following James' announcement last week, Gilbert fired off an incendiary letter to Cleveland's fans,

Knicks still have cap space, but future is now >>
GREENBURGH, N.Y. (AP) -Enough talk about the salary cap. The New York Knicks think they can win now.New York introduced new additions Raymond Felton, Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike and Ronny Turiaf on Monday. Not quite the same as showing off Le

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.